TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof LYON, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,213,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,406,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,213,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 552 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b4c…e850backed FURIA Esports0c120,916$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.922010%2 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked FURIA Esports25c45,426$11,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,437.121,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports20c45,196$8,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,974.521,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed FURIA Esports32c44,444$14,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,222.0353750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed LYON74c33,340$24,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,690.196046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked LYON67c30,000$20,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,8001,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed FURIA Esports1c27,118$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.1644120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked LYON69c26,108$17,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,212.2484942.5%361 W · 488 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed FURIA Esports34c25,782$8,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,765.8638235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed LYON75c20,557$15,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.1348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked LYON67c20,442$13,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,754.5349541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked FURIA Esports9c17,530$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.3134536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed FURIA Esports33c16,222$5,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,353.341,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed FURIA Esports30c15,418$4,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,675.68259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON67c15,000$10,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.5491854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed FURIA Esports34c14,608$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked LYON66c13,009$8,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,422.9817555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed FURIA Esports0c13,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1628350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed FURIA Esports36c12,447$4,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,421.413251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed FURIA Esports1c11,111$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.112072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed LYON69c10,603$7,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.791,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed LYON67c10,215$6,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,368.0481143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked FURIA Esports33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30029443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LYON67c9,898$6,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,287.541,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed FURIA Esports18c9,581$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.5448533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked FURIA Esports34c9,453$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,213.7725944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed LYON66c9,236$6,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,143.572,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed FURIA Esports3c8,800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26423020%46 W · 184 L-17.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed LYON67c8,743$5,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.481,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed LYON68c8,356$5,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.9289347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed LYON69c7,554$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.8257957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed LYON69c7,000$4,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20532150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed FURIA Esports4c6,680$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9796452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed LYON64c6,605$4,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,408.959253.3%49 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed FURIA Esports4c6,510$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1394237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked LYON66c6,115$4,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.0290348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked LYON68c6,077$4,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.2449451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed LYON78c6,000$4,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,31413450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd14c…5fbdbacked FURIA Esports22c5,398$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.8111635.3%41 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked FURIA Esports27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3508933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FURIA Esports33c4,825$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.351,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed FURIA Esports39c4,741$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.11,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8542…9405backed FURIA Esports1c4,521$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018910.1%19 W · 170 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed FURIA Esports33c4,420$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.598951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked FURIA Esports30c4,000$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19029236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed FURIA Esports2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked LYON64c3,935$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.821,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed FURIA Esports5c3,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.594134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…07c0backed FURIA Esports0c3,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149016.7%15 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed LYON62c3,372$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.085867.2%39 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed FURIA Esports32c3,264$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.4885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d67…ab42backed FURIA Esports37c3,240$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.82450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x171b…5179backed FURIA Esports31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003627.8%10 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-41.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked FURIA Esports33c3,030$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed FURIA Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ba…b7bfbacked LYON67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+95.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed FURIA Esports2c2,998$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.861175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked LYON67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.0735353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked FURIA Esports0c2,975$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.921523.3%50 W · 165 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd961…35debacked LYON67c2,975$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.7432442%136 W · 188 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed FURIA Esports34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00060855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e9…03bbbacked FURIA Esports34c2,899$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.992347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked LYON65c2,795$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.351,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed FURIA Esports33c2,700$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8918041.3%33 W · 47 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167e…28d9backed FURIA Esports32c2,502$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FURIA Esports33c2,400$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79232555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports18c2,335$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.542,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed FURIA Esports18c2,331$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.4640726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed FURIA Esports39c2,295$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.3332045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…0e0cbacked LYON65c2,225$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.7612653.2%67 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed LYON62c2,202$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.1128859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1364…a7f7backed FURIA Esports33c2,183$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.331030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FURIA Esports35c2,060$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.522,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed LYON61c2,050$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed FURIA Esports2c2,040$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.841,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e81…8b41backed FURIA Esports10c2,016$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3710517.1%18 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked FURIA Esports31c2,008$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.252,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked FURIA Esports32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6406297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked LYON66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68017738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475b…02b4backed LYON67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6602653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed FURIA Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FURIA Esports2c1,987$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.711,60517.5%281 W · 1,324 L-244.2wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked LYON67c1,981$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.7917748%85 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed FURIA Esports36c1,944$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70026661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x74fc…a0bdbacked FURIA Esports34c1,888$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.9215457.8%89 W · 65 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed LYON71c1,861$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5621861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed FURIA Esports33c1,818$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LYON66c1,757$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.381,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc5…7a02backed FURIA Esports31c1,748$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4673…64b4backed LYON68c1,683$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.712060%12 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked FURIA Esports36c1,679$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.1467760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed FURIA Esports34c1,660$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.539447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked LYON79c1,653$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.2713545.9%62 W · 73 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed LYON64c1,600$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57622640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed FURIA Esports6c1,540$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9212717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x333f…f198backed FURIA Esports33c1,540$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.22222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+58.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed FURIA Esports34c1,530$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3554429.6%161 W · 383 L-35.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed FURIA Esports25c1,530$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.1213371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked FURIA Esports33c1,508$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.7521948.4%106 W · 113 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed FURIA Esports37c1,500$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55533845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.