Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8951311347d1a197716621d16e5849e93600c2d34debe50f0e5d42c444b8ad3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 842.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 46c | 540.85$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.21 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 41c | 356.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.03 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 259.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 254.17$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 224.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 49c | 217.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 54c | 210.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 26c | 201$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 174.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 40c | 162$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 143$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 141.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 24c | 133.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 32c | 112.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 111.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 50c | 102.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 62c | 99.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 85.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 60c | 74.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 53c | 56.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 34c | 56.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 49c | 54.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 51c | 53.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 46c | 50.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 45.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 43.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 60c | 41.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 33c | 39.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 58c | 35.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 70c | 35.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 34.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 34.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 50c | 33.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 39c | 33.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 32.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 49c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 31.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 29.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 37c | 28.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 26.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 23.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 74c | 13.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.