NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89728bd5b8eca1cbcf692ae552d9464ae353bdfae0440fa6b5cf5de82199b9b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 2,319$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.79 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 52c | 1,775$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.8 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 932.27$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 51c | 309.82$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.81 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Under | 60c | 298.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 295.31$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 261.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 43c | 234.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 41c | 143$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 40c | 139.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 61c | 103$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Over | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 62c | 97.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 61c | 97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd474…5edebacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 60c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 63c | 47.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 51c | 39.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 54c | 35.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…180ebacked Under | 61c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Over | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 60c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 60c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under | 57c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 63c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…e4bfbacked Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5this page
- Bucks vs. LakersBucks won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.