NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60b59f53ce2c684f0ab69a57b33b60032947ae7527df4219de47c5d7cd2fc312

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,574 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	51c	8,153$4,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,028.28	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Over	49c	5,139$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	46c	2,615$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.9	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Over	54c	1,853$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.49	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	1,148$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.38	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	46c	1,011$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$545.94	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Over	25c	803$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	78c	767.4$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.05	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Over	46c	595$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.7	166	57.2%95 W · 71 L	+10.2wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	54c	588$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.99	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1e…bb68backed Under	55c	543.59$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.59	95	56.8%54 W · 41 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	72c	373.37$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.86	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Over	46c	360$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.6	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	48c	300$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	43c	292.98$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.92	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Under	58c	277$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.34	87	59.8%52 W · 35 L	+7.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under	73c	268.16$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.45	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	50c	261.03$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.52	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	57c	250$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.5	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Under	58c	168$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.56	93	60.2%56 W · 37 L	+10.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Over	29c	155.54$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Under	58c	139$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.38	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under	58c	139$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.38	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under	58c	121$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.82	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x676e…79b6backed Over	51c	120.82$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.62	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Under	58c	108$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.87	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Under	55c	98$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.1	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Under	58c	97$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.74	71	62%44 W · 27 L	+8.4wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+22%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Under	58c	79$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.18	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Under	58c	78$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.76	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under	59c	76.61$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.61	269	56.1%151 W · 118 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f5f…99d3backed Over	42c	68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-3.9wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-32%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	51c	59.2$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.01	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed Over	42c	57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.94	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Under	58c	56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.52	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Under	58c	56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.52	92	58.7%54 W · 38 L	+9.0wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over	26c	54.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Under	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+6.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Over	47c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	189	54.5%103 W · 86 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Over	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	421	46.1%194 W · 227 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Over	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Over	42c	38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.0wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf26c…3443backed Over	42c	38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43a…f530backed Over	42c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Over	42c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…bdecbacked Over	42c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-7.2wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Over	42c	36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	41	65.9%27 W · 14 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Over	42c	36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52cc…9998backed Over	43c	34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	57c	34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.62	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6098…d746backed Over	42c	34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-9.8wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over	43c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-5.5wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xddf6…9bd5backed Over	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x870f…08ebbacked Over	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	31	71%22 W · 9 L	+6.0wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6191…e505backed Over	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Over	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Over	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed Over	42c	32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	50c	31.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Over	43c	31.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba34…7e93backed Under	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under	67c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.9	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	52c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.51	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over	42c	29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over	42c	29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Over	45c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e48…c958backed Over	42c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1bd…0da6backed Over	42c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Over	42c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Over	44c	27.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	125	60%75 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Over	42c	27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf683…f2dfbacked Over	42c	27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa305…73c9backed Over	42c	27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Over	42c	27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	64c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Over	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9d9…6febbacked Over	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed Over	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Over	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Under	51c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	203	53.7%109 W · 94 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Over	46c	22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event