NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a7e6a3387132e48f7c414300e71317aec779d1c53242e939c07f7f87f548dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Lakers, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Lakers | 54c | 5,277$2,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.4 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bucks | 46c | 4,384$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.48 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 48c | 2,720$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.89 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 33c | 1,638$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Lakers | 52c | 1,175$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 30c | 1,044$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.77 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 52c | 581$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bucks | 68c | 516.52$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…2b2ebacked Lakers | 31c | 474.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 52c | 312.95$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Lakers | 54c | 299.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.83 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 46c | 293.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.72 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Lakers | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Lakers | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Lakers | 53c | 149$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Lakers | 53c | 134$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Lakers | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 52c | 124.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Lakers | 53c | 108$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Lakers | 53c | 106.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Lakers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Lakers | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Lakers | 54c | 94.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf8…2540backed Lakers | 18c | 93.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Lakers | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Lakers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Lakers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Bucks | 54c | 80.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Lakers | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Lakers | 49c | 76.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Bucks | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Lakers | 54c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Lakers | 53c | 68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bucks | 46c | 64.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Bucks | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…d47abacked Lakers | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…9ad1backed Bucks | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Bucks | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Bucks | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks | 48c | 46.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Bucks | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Bucks | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Lakers | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Bucks | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Bucks | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Lakers | 48c | 32.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…9eabbacked Lakers | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Lakers | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…f6c4backed Lakers | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Bucks | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bucks | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Bucks | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Bucks | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Bucks | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bucks | 46c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Lakers | 54c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Bucks | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Bucks | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Bucks | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Bucks | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Lakers | 55c | 26.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Bucks | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Bucks | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888b…8f3fbacked Bucks | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Bucks | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Bucks | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Bucks | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Bucks | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Bucks | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Lakers | 54c | 18.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)this page
- Bucks vs. LakersBucks won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.