NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb191bc3b1dc33f8e3bffb8bb879c2748a23b752c749d126e0eaff8de4dd0db8d

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	17,130$8,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,661.53	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	50c	15,073$7,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,487.88	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Under	50c	9,941$4,970 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,970.44	240	45.4%109 W · 131 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,450	297	48.1%143 W · 154 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,599.99	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Over	50c	3,893$1,946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,946.46	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under	48c	3,742$1,796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,945.67	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Over	53c	3,111$1,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,637.72	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under	48c	2,583$1,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,343.33	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Over	50c	1,431$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.32	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over	52c	1,250$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	6c	934.76$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.72	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under	48c	833.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.33	254	52.8%134 W · 120 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Over	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	187	43.3%81 W · 106 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Over	44c	681.93$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-7.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	56c	675.11$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.05	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Over	53c	597.17$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.5	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	474.92$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.46	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Over	52c	400$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.9	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Over	50c	300$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	417	42%175 W · 242 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Over	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	89	70.8%63 W · 26 L	+7.7wins	+0.09per pick	62cpaid	+11%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	159	59.1%94 W · 65 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Over	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Over	51c	200$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	50c	189.56$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.32	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdb…338dbacked Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over	19c	184.17$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	51c	137.08$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.17	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0742…39a7backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	39	76.9%30 W · 9 L	+6.9wins	+0.18per pick	59cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab7…180ebacked Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Over	49c	77.43$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.94	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-7.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0fd…5903backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	52c	75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	84	46.4%39 W · 45 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Over	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.7	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	51c	69$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.08	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8db…c659backed Over	52c	68.85$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…241bbacked Over	50c	51.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x130c…782cbacked Over	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	144	20.1%29 W · 115 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x848f…612fbacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	61.5%48 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.21	238	45.4%108 W · 130 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Over	52c	28.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	144	50%72 W · 72 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	52c	25.63$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a8…642bbacked Under	60c	25.19$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	174	66.1%115 W · 59 L	+13.5wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x756d…04a9backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1231…786cbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event