NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4bc0d8c5c68151f9a7a4831191f23a4bffa780bea23a7406ff35ac8b5fea2c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Over | 42c | 117,397$49,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,305.27 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 58c | 116,290$67,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,841.74 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…ca3cbacked Under | 55c | 9,101$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,101 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 6,629$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,991.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 2,033$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,788$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 1,010$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.7 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 3c | 829.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 55c | 493.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 358$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 45c | 350$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 315.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 177.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 59c | 172$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 59c | 163$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 121.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 60c | 106$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Under | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 88.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 60c | 82.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 59c | 80.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Under | 52c | 71.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 57c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 40c | 52.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 56c | 52.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Over | 47c | 37.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 45c | 35.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 45c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5this page
- Bucks vs. LakersBucks won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.