F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89925597adaba6c0e9be4b2859ae277a7234b8017b5d37b4eeeaa6d940ecd8ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 13c | 1,220$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.49 | 100 | 20%20 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…0d4cbacked Yes | 37c | 961.95$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…c9afbacked Yes | 13c | 791.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 79c | 509.75$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…7571backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed Yes | 12c | 481.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 7c | 428.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0459…437fbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…dc82backed Yes | 12c | 404.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 40c | 311.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…c6c7backed Yes | 17c | 308.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 246.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…c34ebacked Yes | 10c | 164.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…1b50backed Yes | 13c | 155.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 141.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Yes | 23c | 132.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…9036backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…2ef8backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e36cbacked Yes | 24c | 98.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…832fbacked Yes | 20c | 54.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 79c | 45.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.