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Tennis · resolved market

Monterrey Open: Panna Udvardy vs Elise Mertens

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elise Mertensof Panna Udvardy, Elise Mertens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$485,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Panna Udvardy11c26,772$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.079,26736.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L-199.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Panna Udvardy12c14,359$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.264,80349.5%2,379 W · 2,424 L+174.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Panna Udvardy27c14,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7601,45428.5%414 W · 1,040 L+2.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Panna Udvardy21c12,321$2,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.3764851.9%336 W · 312 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Panna Udvardy20c9,535$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.5239235.5%139 W · 253 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Panna Udvardy11c9,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9902,36952.2%1,236 W · 1,133 L+87.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Panna Udvardy11c8,984$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.56,70050.8%3,401 W · 3,299 L+267.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Panna Udvardy11c5,946$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.394,30545%1,939 W · 2,366 L+20.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Panna Udvardy20c4,757$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.12,58138.7%999 W · 1,582 L+100.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Panna Udvardy16c3,635$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.763,77642.6%1,608 W · 2,168 L-44.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Panna Udvardy31c2,903$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90034737.8%131 W · 216 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Panna Udvardy19c2,631$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.891,15045.4%522 W · 628 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Elise Mertens80c2,555$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51116165.2%105 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…db91backed Panna Udvardy9c2,222$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc611…cc2ebacked Panna Udvardy11c2,116$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7511354%61 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Panna Udvardy11c1,800$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19878055.4%432 W · 348 L+52.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Panna Udvardy22c1,736$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38012335.8%44 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27d2…b0f8backed Elise Mertens80c1,631$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.311573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Panna Udvardy12c1,589$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.962122.2%138 W · 483 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf03b…3ba1backed Panna Udvardy27c1,481$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40018742.8%80 W · 107 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab28…c210backed Panna Udvardy28c1,389$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.891040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Panna Udvardy20c1,250$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,70950.6%864 W · 845 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Panna Udvardy18c1,217$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.11,44742.8%620 W · 827 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Panna Udvardy23c1,207$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.381,60624.4%392 W · 1,214 L-41.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Elise Mertens77c1,096$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.0866258.9%390 W · 272 L-32.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Panna Udvardy20c1,025$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20579136%285 W · 506 L+36.5wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77d5…732ebacked Elise Mertens69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31037153.6%199 W · 172 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Panna Udvardy20c965.47$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.032,54551.2%1,303 W · 1,242 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Panna Udvardy13c915.31$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.915,48656.3%3,088 W · 2,398 L+232.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Panna Udvardy18c704.87$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5111,87743.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L+19.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb546…802cbacked Elise Mertens80c697.88$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.582580%20 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Elise Mertens74c675.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6794640.6%384 W · 562 L-31.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Panna Udvardy20c599.24$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.853,75245.3%1,700 W · 2,052 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked Panna Udvardy27c555.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd335…fe54backed Panna Udvardy9c555.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012733.1%42 W · 85 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Elise Mertens80c508.56$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.7188858%515 W · 373 L+16.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc535…9884backed Panna Udvardy20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Panna Udvardy28c494.3$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.221,12337.2%418 W · 705 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Panna Udvardy7c472$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0412330.1%37 W · 86 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f4…335fbacked Elise Mertens77c435.38$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3824874.2%184 W · 64 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Panna Udvardy14c403$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4261746.2%285 W · 332 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Panna Udvardy30c366.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11029128.2%82 W · 209 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Panna Udvardy10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516333.7%55 W · 108 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Elise Mertens70c340.72$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2212049.2%59 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Panna Udvardy20c328.05$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.613,39748.6%1,652 W · 1,745 L-47.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d8…da3bbacked Panna Udvardy18c283.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5053647%252 W · 284 L+27.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Elise Mertens79c251.89$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.931257.4%179 W · 133 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda79…9050backed Panna Udvardy10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514430.6%44 W · 100 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Elise Mertens79c217.74$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7246752.5%245 W · 222 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Panna Udvardy25c213$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2550351.7%260 W · 243 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Panna Udvardy20c212$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.433549.6%166 W · 169 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Panna Udvardy20c208$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.676339.2%299 W · 464 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Panna Udvardy19c205.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405,37728.9%1,553 W · 3,824 L-20.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Panna Udvardy25c205$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2546453.4%248 W · 216 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Elise Mertens75c200.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9237354.4%203 W · 170 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Panna Udvardy20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016847%79 W · 89 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Elise Mertens80c187.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.510167.3%68 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Panna Udvardy25c185$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2554255.5%301 W · 241 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed Panna Udvardy27c171.3$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2514153.2%75 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Panna Udvardy17c166.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5264726.4%171 W · 476 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Panna Udvardy15c153.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12,08846.7%975 W · 1,113 L+19.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Elise Mertens75c145.25$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8938766.4%257 W · 130 L+0.3wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8961…64cebacked Panna Udvardy28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014153.2%75 W · 66 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d80…e49fbacked Panna Udvardy27c140.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Panna Udvardy25c128.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7255351.9%287 W · 266 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d32…25a8backed Elise Mertens77c126$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.410665.1%69 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Panna Udvardy14c124.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.888,92142.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L-169.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Panna Udvardy25c121.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.354,40752.3%2,304 W · 2,103 L+66.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Panna Udvardy27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.920250.5%102 W · 100 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa678…dd59backed Panna Udvardy20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016443.9%72 W · 92 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3450…0870backed Panna Udvardy10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108833%29 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd762…bb9ebacked Panna Udvardy10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013739.4%54 W · 83 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5da…5fb9backed Panna Udvardy10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013333.8%45 W · 88 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd64…6a73backed Panna Udvardy10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8178…3443backed Panna Udvardy10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb994…fad1backed Panna Udvardy10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010734.6%37 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3443…64e9backed Elise Mertens72c99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7217371.7%124 W · 49 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Panna Udvardy21c98.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.728754%155 W · 132 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd788…4349backed Panna Udvardy27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Panna Udvardy35c91.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3215439%60 W · 94 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Panna Udvardy18c91.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9838731.3%121 W · 266 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Panna Udvardy18c83.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.812,07652.9%1,099 W · 977 L+33.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Panna Udvardy20c80.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0851845.8%237 W · 281 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Panna Udvardy15c77.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.921,52243.9%668 W · 854 L-26.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa1…2c8abacked Panna Udvardy20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157250%36 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Panna Udvardy21c65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4451548.5%250 W · 265 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Elise Mertens72c64.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1319852%103 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Panna Udvardy21c63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.232,16456.1%1,214 W · 950 L+42.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Elise Mertens71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.233962.8%213 W · 126 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8087…a213backed Elise Mertens71c56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2439765.5%260 W · 137 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc73a…ba42backed Elise Mertens74c50.39$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.18253.7%44 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadb…378fbacked Panna Udvardy21c50.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Panna Udvardy20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,09652.4%574 W · 522 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Elise Mertens74c49.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.985556.4%31 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked Elise Mertens75c49.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.648378.3%65 W · 18 L+11.9wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+20.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Elise Mertens79c40.2$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4423364.8%151 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb30…a57cbacked Elise Mertens73c39.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.82683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc02…ce2abacked Elise Mertens77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9624973.5%183 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick74cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba3…5ac0backed Elise Mertens80c35.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x946d…8c66backed Elise Mertens72c33.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.311553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick70cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.