MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ac7004f061eb49043dad0f4c8508537ed88c5f428f3dd0f2c398afd0dda0e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 6,033$2,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,958.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 62c | 5,360$3,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 2,786$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics | 57c | 1,087$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.59 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 750.2$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.11 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 56c | 661.04$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletics | 56c | 615.26$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.55 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics | 56c | 596.52$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 471.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 68c | 379.1$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 266$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 211.59$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Athletics | 57c | 174.56$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Athletics | 56c | 167.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Athletics | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Athletics | 56c | 154$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 144$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 124.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 121$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Philadelphia Phillies | 11c | 117.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics | 56c | 105.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 93.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Athletics | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Athletics | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Athletics | 75c | 68.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 53.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 56c | 50.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics | 29c | 49.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Athletics | 79c | 44.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Athletics | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 36.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Athletics | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 33.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Athletics | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 31.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 45c | 30.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Athletics | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 27.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 27.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea47…d64bbacked Athletics | 57c | 26.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 23.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Athletics | 57c | 22.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.