MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aceedd263e7da5ec25f8102206266059fdbd7c0ebfcb991a87e6b9161a554c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 1,335$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 918.02$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.09 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 840.27$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 739.56$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 581.66$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.58 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 27c | 431.26$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago Cubs | 19c | 323.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Chicago Cubs | 32c | 216$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 198.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 184.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Chicago Cubs | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 97.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 90.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 77.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 58.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 55.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 48.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 46.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 41.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 34.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 32.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 31.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 28.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 23.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.