MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f518262d88e53a46f3f163933ebdebc956b03e1830ec04ff26305e989a2bb09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 4,499$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,425.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 3,347$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 2,657$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 2,532$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,477$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.48 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 394$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.08 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 177.07$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 137.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 108.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 107.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 79.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 60.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 53.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 49.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 37.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…b1c7backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 33.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 30.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 30.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 30.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 28.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 27.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 27.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 25.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.