MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61896bdbb802f5abd96d3e838897f076be1efd116613c9648ca4fa1fe6fa2eeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 5,776$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.86 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 5,022$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Cubs | 21c | 4,440$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 3,903$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.55 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 1,568$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 889.63$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 588.16$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 309$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 199$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 185.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 185.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 142.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 105.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 86.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 83.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 81.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 67.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 60.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…ac5ebacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 60.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 56.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 53.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 46.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b82ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…d77abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.