MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaae3ebea910cec5c32f9394bfde090f837631ee6c63c15d19e77dee6d7dfce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 48c | 8,450$4,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,394.1 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 7,652$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 3,676$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 57c | 2,423$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.97 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,100$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 1,027$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 940.19$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.3 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 939.83$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 918.35$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.14 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 661$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 635$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.55 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 571.16$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 538.87$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 63c | 524.27$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 69c | 507.32$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 399.98$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 47c | 362.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 233.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 21c | 231.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…3476backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 16c | 202$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 200.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 168.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Under | 53c | 149.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 48c | 139.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 125.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 102.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 46c | 85.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 81.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 47c | 74.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Over | 35c | 73.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 38c | 71.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 63.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 46c | 63.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…fb0cbacked Over | 30c | 63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Under | 59c | 49.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -13.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 44.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 41.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…051abacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 47c | 24.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 51c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 54c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.