MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac33076811ca2d2851c4329e9e2a6e93382982bb7e0516c3c276cb603aea622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 13,463$5,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,243.15 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 10,000$5,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.19 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 4,798$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.93 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 62c | 4,560$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.51 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 2,958$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.93 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 1,811$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.07 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 1,500$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 1,252$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.84 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 893$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.27 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 62c | 623.9$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.53 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 465.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 401.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 388.89$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 68c | 276.95$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 268$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 140.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 133.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 128.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 104.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 92.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf52…9cc4backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 83.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 82.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 79.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 78.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 76.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 63.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 61.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 57.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 55.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 48.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 44.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 35.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Chicago Cubs | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…76c7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.