TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof RE.Arise, Spirit Academy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,600
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,238

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,600 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked Spirit Academy47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,239.961,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Spirit Academy55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9730452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked RE.Arise47c5,531$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,584.0212858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked RE.Arise50c5,422$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.5689741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed Spirit Academy63c5,169$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.910458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed RE.Arise46c5,094$2,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.1947650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc83…08f4backed RE.Arise46c4,541$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.035461.1%33 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise41c3,478$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.2548057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked RE.Arise35c3,305$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Spirit Academy60c2,136$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.5331055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy63c2,050$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.51,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed RE.Arise1c2,041$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.323323%10 W · 322 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked RE.Arise37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed RE.Arise50c1,610$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.8857449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RE.Arise50c1,352$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.2991553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise26c1,256$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1389238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked RE.Arise3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3035960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked RE.Arise18c983$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8479341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed RE.Arise47c792.48$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.267343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked Spirit Academy61c737.06$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.074156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Spirit Academy60c733.7$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.4858356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked Spirit Academy68c675.06$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.0720859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c22…fc37backed Spirit Academy63c634.91$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.921968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+37.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise51c565.48$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3142639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed RE.Arise41c552.83$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5338142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise24c530.33$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.461,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed RE.Arise52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26056548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked RE.Arise52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26092056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Spirit Academy53c430.26$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0919251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed Spirit Academy64c403.59$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.291888.9%16 W · 2 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+46.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RE.Arise52c336.44$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9566947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed RE.Arise49c302.8$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1813547.4%64 W · 71 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked RE.Arise36c268.56$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.522646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Spirit Academy61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.525639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed RE.Arise42c239.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7115545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Spirit Academy47c210.39$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.136743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed RE.Arise49c205.59$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7510056%56 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb5…819abacked RE.Arise53c187.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.277745.5%35 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1732…4f8cbacked RE.Arise53c179.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise42c172.52$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.21,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked RE.Arise48c152.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8714343.4%62 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed RE.Arise45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.426154.8%143 W · 118 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed RE.Arise50c128.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9924138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Spirit Academy54c125.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.913951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed RE.Arise34c120.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3817537.1%65 W · 110 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked Spirit Academy61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.912860.9%78 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7c…8b29backed Spirit Academy63c102.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9214861.5%91 W · 57 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy53c98.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.281345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ef…647cbacked RE.Arise51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked RE.Arise52c98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9628145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed RE.Arise53c97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4164547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked RE.Arise45c95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.351,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed RE.Arise22c93.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5569132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6204…caa8backed RE.Arise40c92.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372250%11 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x242c…ddd2backed Spirit Academy55c91.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3721447.2%101 W · 113 L+16.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ae…17bdbacked RE.Arise45c89.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed RE.Arise39c84.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.983132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed RE.Arise49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2910662.3%66 W · 40 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d33…6715backed RE.Arise35c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.214543.4%63 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x401d…23c6backed Spirit Academy51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.45735.1%20 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e84…2e87backed RE.Arise50c69.53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.751643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1028…f3fcbacked Spirit Academy56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec95…a2dcbacked Spirit Academy50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise44c54.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.132,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed RE.Arise52c54.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.17041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x749f…6be1backed Spirit Academy52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.18551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Spirit Academy61c49.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4530251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x626a…3d36backed Spirit Academy66c49.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.886965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked RE.Arise38c49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5568345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2f…2586backed Spirit Academy64c40.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+41.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a00…59e2backed Spirit Academy64c40.36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.531788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+45.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Spirit Academy65c37.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2138759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2df6…ef98backed Spirit Academy59c37.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.212979.3%23 W · 6 L+7.4wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+44.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Spirit Academy50c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x765d…610bbacked Spirit Academy55c32.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe010…5147backed Spirit Academy60c30.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3437%3 W · 40 L-16.0wins-0.37per pick44cpaid-88.8%equal weight24-0.24 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed RE.Arise35c28.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed RE.Arise53c25.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5728650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed RE.Arise50c24.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.314540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked RE.Arise54c21.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6491356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed RE.Arise53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.620820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ee…66ebbacked Spirit Academy70c18.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.671172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Spirit Academy62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8447358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa4a…e960backed Spirit Academy66c15.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.