Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ae985c3e91c80a2b41a1cc0772cdb7dae469a30a0170be3324679590828a1b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 4c | 2,813$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 41c | 1,847$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.34 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 781.11$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 5c | 351.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 313.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 48c | 185$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 185$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 139.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 121$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 119$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 99.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 80.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 76.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 45c | 72.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 71.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…a35ebacked No | 60c | 67.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…4354backed No | 60c | 67.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 63c | 62.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 57c | 51.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 43.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 38.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 61c | 36.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 35.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 60c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed Yes | 78c | 29.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.