WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8af0a7bbaf708b5e25024a3c0c7955483feb41b4b1444ad54c1e5065635f2ad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Toronto Tempo, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Tempo | 52c | 6,077$3,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,169.63 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 5,505$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,834.44 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Tempo | 49c | 3,721$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.6 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 2,900$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.8 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 2,416$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.96 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Toronto Tempo | 56c | 2,416$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.96 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 1,890$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.67 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Toronto Tempo | 56c | 1,789$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Tempo | 51c | 1,389$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.56 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 1,214$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.66 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 1,029$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.22 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 290.89$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 198.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 185.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Tempo | 53c | 101.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1112…3104backed Toronto Tempo | 57c | 78.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 57.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 47.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Toronto Tempo | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Toronto Tempo | 56c | 35.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 34.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 34.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dee…5d00backed Toronto Tempo | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto TempoPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.