WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32865257407c98ed4267ac9ea539f07f58b9a4c8eccda78677be8ce41eee379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaed0…6f18backed Under | 49c | 22,473$11,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,461.06 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 51c | 21,031$10,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,722.48 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 3,620$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.53 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 53c | 3,405$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.65 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 56c | 1,439$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.01 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 1,341$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.02 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Over | 23c | 1,121$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.57 | 93 | 18.3%17 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 799$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.49 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 42c | 745$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 42c | 691.67$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 53c | 440.17$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.64 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 55c | 389.09$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 45c | 389.09$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 47c | 311.09$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 56c | 292.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 289.62$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 49c | 188.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 49c | 175.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 53c | 173.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Under | 68c | 167.94$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 156.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 156.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 143.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 14c | 131.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 60c | 123$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 63c | 123$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…1cc3backed Under | 53c | 92.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 51c | 83.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 43c | 83.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 80.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 79c | 79.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…7b62backed Over | 53c | 70.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 49c | 70.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 69.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 45c | 69.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Over | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 45c | 52.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 50.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…06b3backed Over | 46c | 43.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Over | 43c | 38.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 37.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 43c | 34.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 43c | 34.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…6993backed Over | 44c | 34.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 43c | 34.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 41c | 31.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Over | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 27.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Under | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto TempoPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.