WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4e0aca9f4a690736c5c0f26dba95d7171c9ccee97b5c6dcdd7d1cab5b2e16d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaed0…6f18backed Under | 49c | 17,819$8,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,024.11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 5,534$2,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,804.61 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 50c | 4,477$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.52 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 49c | 4,161$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.89 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 3,523$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.42 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 2,397$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.26 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 50c | 2,298$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.41 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Over | 49c | 2,256$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 50c | 1,664$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 50c | 1,206$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.99 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Over | 50c | 746.78$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 657.72$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.53 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 516.4$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.57 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 50c | 501.01$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 50c | 455.08$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.35 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 435.91$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.96 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…edacbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Over | 50c | 380.85$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 50c | 380.24$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 296.94$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 53c | 217.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 50c | 214.43$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 194.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 28c | 177.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 112.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 72.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 66.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 50c | 46.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Under | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 50c | 31.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 21.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 61c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto TempoPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.