WNBA · resolved market
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43280ef6f263ec176122898928c149a643ef53bfb216dc8bb088fa9e50ed6c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 3,498$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.21 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 2,839$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.42 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Over | 50c | 2,698$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 53c | 2,271$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.37 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 1,824$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.03 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 1,809$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.4 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.99 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 50c | 790$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 617.45$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.08 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Over | 51c | 609.22$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 48c | 557.21$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.46 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 47c | 501.85$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.87 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 53c | 443.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.88 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 221.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 53c | 166.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb8…328ebacked Over | 66c | 150.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Under | 69c | 145.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cf…0e7cbacked Over | 47c | 139.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over | 49c | 100.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 49c | 100.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 48c | 82.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 46c | 46.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 51c | 37.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…644abacked Under | 71c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 70c | 32.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 29.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 23.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Under | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…7ee6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 178.5this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto TempoPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 175.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 177.5Under won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.