NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b987b8a9926aba9f48a0a6369cd2933c019204eb10d74e52ad56a6223fbee08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Suns, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Suns | 27c | 3,655$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks | 78c | 2,242$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 78c | 795$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.57 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed Knicks | 76c | 620$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Suns | 22c | 500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Suns | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Knicks | 36c | 311.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Knicks | 14c | 167.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Suns | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Suns | 34c | 59.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Knicks | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…e93bbacked Suns | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks | 49c | 41.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Suns | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-1.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. KnicksSuns won
- Suns vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5Under won
- Suns vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5Under won
- Suns vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Suns vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.