NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14b5777e226fb6306cd3c0a87d091b0d05803e1276a9c42e7a860a0a84710d7

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunsof Knicks, Suns
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $106,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $111,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,518 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf668…5c69backed Suns	55c	33,085$18,246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,838.62	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns	56c	16,573$9,279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,293.79	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Knicks	43c	15,106$6,567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,566.87	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns	59c	11,144$6,524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,620.95	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Knicks	41c	6,682$2,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,739.62	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+6.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns	56c	5,000$2,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,200	584	49.7%290 W · 294 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks	44c	4,838$2,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,105.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Knicks	44c	4,100$1,788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,788	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns	55c	3,764$2,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,693.97	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks	42c	3,201$1,347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,347.45	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks	46c	2,524$1,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,149.8	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns	56c	2,303$1,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,013.32	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Suns	58c	2,293$1,330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$962.88	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Knicks	42c	2,213$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940.23	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks	44c	1,998$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.17	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Suns	51c	1,400$714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$685.97	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Suns	58c	1,133$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.17	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns	56c	937$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.28	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Knicks	44c	922.17$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.3	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Knicks	49c	877.61$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.03	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Suns	53c	799.96$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.98	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Suns	56c	750$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330	89	61.8%55 W · 34 L	+8.2wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b23…1448backed Suns	51c	636.39$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.83	112	50%56 W · 56 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61fb…4ebebacked Knicks	48c	630$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.4	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Knicks	46c	600$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Suns	56c	600$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Knicks	47c	508.51$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Knicks	45c	428.82$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.97	221	40.7%90 W · 131 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa1a…d9abbacked Knicks	47c	400$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…a405backed Suns	54c	389.99$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.4	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Knicks	46c	372.92$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.77	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns	56c	369$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.36	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Knicks	49c	314.29$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…180abacked Knicks	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-11.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Knicks	48c	260.42$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Knicks	43c	230.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.71	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfab5…2bb4backed Knicks	46c	220$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.2	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Knicks	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	164	40.9%67 W · 97 L	-13.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Suns	49c	158.92$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.42	561	54.5%306 W · 255 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Knicks	44c	140$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	432	46.1%199 W · 233 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Knicks	51c	135$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.4	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7631…9cc3backed Knicks	48c	110$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Knicks	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Knicks	43c	99.96$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.98	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-6.1wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Knicks	50c	99.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	156	50.6%79 W · 77 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Knicks	44c	97.28$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.42	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Suns	54c	90$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.4	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks	14c	86.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Suns	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	503	51.5%259 W · 244 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed Knicks	44c	72.15$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Suns	51c	66.29$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.48	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…1e75backed Knicks	43c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Knicks	43c	59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	100	34%34 W · 66 L	-12.0wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Suns	55c	54.55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.55	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Knicks	47c	52.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d8…19c5backed Knicks	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	243	58%141 W · 102 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9713…8219backed Knicks	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.1wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4dcd…43aabacked Knicks	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-4.1wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e46…957abacked Knicks	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Knicks	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	153	47.1%72 W · 81 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3f…c9f1backed Knicks	42c	47.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns	49c	44.12$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Suns	53c	42.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.23	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…bf3dbacked Knicks	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Knicks	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Knicks	44c	35.68$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	204	56.4%115 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks	43c	35.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Knicks	57c	34.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	271	44.3%120 W · 151 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	45c	34.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.27	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec8c…666abacked Knicks	51c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Suns	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Suns	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…55b8backed Suns	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Knicks	45c	26.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	167	45.5%76 W · 91 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Knicks	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Knicks	46c	24.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Knicks	44c	23.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-6.3wins	-0.15per pick	36cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5c83…3a66backed Knicks	49c	21.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+3.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event