Earnings · resolved market
Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bef426c53d21ea3427ae154156a7c26e4fbbe46171f539f90ec4a2fe0bc2e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $850,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $849,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $850,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 67c | 895.12$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.41 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 427.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 399.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 23c | 389.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 39c | 261.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff6…f5abbacked Yes | 40c | 245$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 26c | 236$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…8faabacked Yes | 45c | 224.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…812ebacked Yes | 40c | 220$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 211.76$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…8403backed Yes | 30c | 202$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33df…337dbacked Yes | 40c | 188.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 23c | 169.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…52eabacked Yes | 40c | 168$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…e335backed Yes | 31c | 163$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 31c | 130.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 59c | 126.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 59c | 114.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d1…1de0backed Yes | 40c | 111.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 39c | 106.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 30c | 105.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f89…a939backed No | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…e1a0backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…3c9abacked No | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5a…16d5backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…43c5backed No | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…25a3backed Yes | 31c | 81.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 28c | 75.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…80bebacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 42c | 71.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…782cbacked No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 37c | 63.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 43c | 63.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0de…3a4dbacked No | 69c | 60.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…d9c0backed No | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…3b09backed Yes | 45c | 51.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 20c | 50.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 47.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…ec18backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…2207backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked Yes | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c63…37e7backed Yes | 30c | 39.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed No | 63c | 37.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 72c | 36.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…c918backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…c191backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed Yes | 40c | 33.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665d…ea00backed Yes | 43c | 31.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…8420backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 61c | 30.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…4085backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c2ddbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…84e8backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae3…85afbacked No | 57c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a4…1b4fbacked No | 69c | 29.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…9adebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…799bbacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…3d7cbacked No | 69c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…3a8abacked Yes | 40c | 25.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…9cbbbacked Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…9f80backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…4cf5backed No | 60c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…8a51backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 63c | 23.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a244backed No | 63c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…d4e7backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44f…84c7backed No | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.