Tennis · resolved market
Trieste: Lukas Neumayer vs Andrej Nedic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bfe82a4721cc2ddaf5a7b425f17cfe2048c738af4996f9761357ef035949b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lukas Neumayerof Lukas Neumayer, Andrej Nedic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Andrej Nedic | 3c | 17,167$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.79 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lukas Neumayer | 44c | 2,718$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.12 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Andrej Nedic | 9c | 2,611$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.38 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Andrej Nedic | 57c | 2,537$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Lukas Neumayer | 60c | 1,134$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.64 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Andrej Nedic | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,161 | 37.6%437 W · 724 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Andrej Nedic | 55c | 1,096$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.45 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Lukas Neumayer | 74c | 1,051$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.82 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Andrej Nedic | 41c | 999.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.98 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Andrej Nedic | 40c | 836.93$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.04 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f6…f078backed Lukas Neumayer | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 648.69$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Andrej Nedic | 37c | 603.73$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Andrej Nedic | 39c | 462.95$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.55 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Andrej Nedic | 26c | 422.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Lukas Neumayer | 61c | 407.31$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 873 | 37.1%324 W · 549 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Andrej Nedic | 38c | 400$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.55 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Andrej Nedic | 14c | 385.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Andrej Nedic | 46c | 319.57$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Lukas Neumayer | 61c | 286$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Lukas Neumayer | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Lukas Neumayer | 51c | 262.22$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…27d8backed Andrej Nedic | 11c | 235.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Lukas Neumayer | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Lukas Neumayer | 62c | 189.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 335 | 57%191 W · 144 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Andrej Nedic | 26c | 179.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 222 | 30.6%68 W · 154 L | -25.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Lukas Neumayer | 58c | 173.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…8e2abacked Lukas Neumayer | 45c | 168.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Andrej Nedic | 39c | 163.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Andrej Nedic | 44c | 158$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 327 | 26.9%88 W · 239 L | -43.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…ff12backed Lukas Neumayer | 64c | 156.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Andrej Nedic | 17c | 152.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Andrej Nedic | 18c | 145.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Lukas Neumayer | 69c | 144.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…0f08backed Andrej Nedic | 35c | 138.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 185 | 37.3%69 W · 116 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Andrej Nedic | 57c | 138$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Lukas Neumayer | 65c | 134.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Andrej Nedic | 39c | 129.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…ad33backed Andrej Nedic | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Andrej Nedic | 39c | 100.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 799 | 51.1%408 W · 391 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…e64abacked Andrej Nedic | 11c | 96.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Andrej Nedic | 41c | 95.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Lukas Neumayer | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Andrej Nedic | 55c | 87.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 302 | 35.1%106 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28be…6dbebacked Andrej Nedic | 36c | 83.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 36.6%86 W · 149 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Andrej Nedic | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Lukas Neumayer | 60c | 70.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lukas Neumayer | 57c | 69.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Andrej Nedic | 45c | 67.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Andrej Nedic | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Andrej Nedic | 43c | 58.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Lukas Neumayer | 42c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Lukas Neumayer | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Andrej Nedic | 37c | 51.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Andrej Nedic | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7faf…e2b5backed Andrej Nedic | 37c | 47.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Lukas Neumayer | 52c | 45.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 245 | 46.5%114 W · 131 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Lukas Neumayer | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Andrej Nedic | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 350 | 60.9%213 W · 137 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…0a8cbacked Lukas Neumayer | 56c | 39.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 464 | 40.5%188 W · 276 L | -36.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Lukas Neumayer | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 347 | 61.1%212 W · 135 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe519…2f48backed Lukas Neumayer | 46c | 36.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…6b00backed Lukas Neumayer | 61c | 35.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 476 | 51.9%247 W · 229 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Andrej Nedic | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…f2ffbacked Andrej Nedic | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 292 | 37.3%109 W · 183 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…f379backed Andrej Nedic | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Lukas Neumayer | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8703…64cfbacked Lukas Neumayer | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Andrej Nedic | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Andrej Nedic | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…a566backed Lukas Neumayer | 48c | 27.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Lukas Neumayer | 64c | 26.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 606 | 51.8%314 W · 292 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Lukas Neumayer | 57c | 26.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Lukas Neumayer | 60c | 25.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Lukas Neumayer | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…87b1backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Andrej Nedic | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Andrej Nedic | 57c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trieste: Lukas Neumayer vs Andrej Nedicthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Neumayer vs NedicNeumayer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.