Fifa International · resolved market
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c37c4a8790f9875007fe31f8994625a9a0883250f3935a5d8a37590a9632c7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 63c | 3,150$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.37 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 17c | 2,104$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.86 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 1,927$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.45 | 1,144 | 39.2%448 W · 696 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 614.9$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.45 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed Under | 19c | 405.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Under | 18c | 386.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 197 | 23.4%46 W · 151 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 64c | 313.68$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 137 | 36.5%50 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 263.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…a978backed Under | 43c | 232.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 41c | 208.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 238 | 20.6%49 W · 189 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 42c | 136.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 189 | 26.5%50 W · 139 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 65c | 114.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…eac6backed Over | 64c | 107.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…d4ccbacked Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Over | 79c | 62.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Over | 64c | 59.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 49c | 53.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 46c | 49.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…d972backed Over | 65c | 41.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 54c | 35.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 28.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…8325backed Over | 55c | 27.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 46c | 26.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 54c | 21.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5this page
- Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Iceland won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Iceland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.