Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Japan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb18d4eca956cb273aef44072e7c9840a1868a1eeb2755541eae4b7cf49194d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Icelandof Japan, Iceland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Iceland | 66c | 2,299$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.93 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Japan | 38c | 1,409$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Japan | 26c | 1,177$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Japan | 39c | 510.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Iceland | 61c | 496.1$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Iceland | 63c | 348.25$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Iceland | 63c | 342.91$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Iceland | 60c | 306.85$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Japan | 37c | 215.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Japan | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Japan | 37c | 184.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Iceland | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 246 | 49.2%121 W · 125 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Iceland | 63c | 150.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed Japan | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Japan | 17c | 138.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Japan | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Japan | 32c | 121.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…371bbacked Iceland | 75c | 114.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…afedbacked Japan | 49c | 102.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 33.9%43 W · 84 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Japan | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…6f32backed Iceland | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Iceland | 64c | 95.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Iceland | 67c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Japan | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Iceland | 51c | 73.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Japan | 38c | 64.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Japan | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Japan | 28c | 54.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked Iceland | 67c | 44.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Japan | 38c | 44.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Japan | 27c | 41.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 210 | 46.7%98 W · 112 L | +12.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Iceland | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Japan | 38c | 38.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Japan | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Iceland | 62c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Iceland | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)this page
- Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Iceland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.