Spread: Japan (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492dfb60176daf94cf5ecc7ee14b55044a2a152ffa609979d734b9e859d67948

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Icelandof Japan, Iceland
Resolved: May 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $22,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,696 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb8c4…7385backed Iceland	38c	1,501$571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$929.91	292	32.9%96 W · 196 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Japan	62c	1,432$882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882.38	100	42%42 W · 58 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0eaabacked Iceland	48c	1,165$554 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Japan	63c	999.98$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.99	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Japan	13c	727.57$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.38	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcd…36dfbacked Iceland	69c	576.44$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.52	145	56.6%82 W · 63 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb934…57ebbacked Iceland	46c	558$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.92	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+201.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Iceland	66c	533.77$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.48	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa213…6907backed Iceland	55c	528.51$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.83	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32aa…c56ebacked Japan	40c	500$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Iceland	36c	409.38$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262	385	26.8%103 W · 282 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Japan	31c	392$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.31	444	35.4%157 W · 287 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Japan	38c	378.17$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.93	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Japan	45c	345.31$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.31	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Japan	64c	342.6$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Japan	65c	307.69$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	104	51.9%54 W · 50 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Iceland	39c	274.81$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.4	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Iceland	63c	258.38$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.87	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcba…04ddbacked Iceland	39c	256.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.41	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5993…470dbacked Japan	51c	204.94$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.52	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Japan	60c	200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Japan	63c	199.99$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.99	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cde…07aebacked Japan	64c	187.26$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22b…8f84backed Iceland	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	73	52.1%38 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Iceland	36c	184$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.76	333	50.5%168 W · 165 L	+24.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Japan	64c	156.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-8.8wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Japan	62c	143.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.95	815	54.8%447 W · 368 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Iceland	36c	139.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.45	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed Iceland	39c	138.46$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.46	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31d6…b5c9backed Japan	31c	129.13$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	38cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Japan	39c	113.81$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	109	52.3%57 W · 52 L	+9.8wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Japan	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	116	48.3%56 W · 60 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd487…5daebacked Japan	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-60%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Iceland	35c	99.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	465	25.4%118 W · 347 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…28d2backed Japan	62c	99.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.99	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Iceland	35c	96$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.4	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Japan	58c	87.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.3	259	45.2%117 W · 142 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3a…1ff8backed Iceland	39c	84.62$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.62	102	41.2%42 W · 60 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2458…bd24backed Iceland	37c	81.08$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.08	179	45.3%81 W · 98 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Iceland	38c	67.73$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.11	418	57.9%242 W · 176 L	+14.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b0f…c7e8backed Japan	37c	67.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	121	28.1%34 W · 87 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Japan	29c	65.79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	+9.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Iceland	69c	60$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Iceland	35c	60$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Iceland	37c	51.35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.35	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed Iceland	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	356	19.4%69 W · 287 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Iceland	35c	50.38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.75	116	58.6%68 W · 48 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Japan	62c	50.06$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.04	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb18…6f32backed Iceland	39c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.5	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x235b…af09backed Japan	31c	48.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	40%6 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Japan	64c	46.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	311	47.9%149 W · 162 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Iceland	37c	42.6$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	379	50.1%190 W · 189 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…7f72backed Iceland	40c	40$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	137	45.3%62 W · 75 L	-14.9wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd7c5…2353backed Japan	62c	38.71$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.9wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Iceland	61c	37.81$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.74	935	42.2%395 W · 540 L	-27.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a5…f52ebacked Japan	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	38.4%68 W · 109 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…a387backed Japan	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x819b…6a57backed Japan	61c	27.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.21per pick	57cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb847…1974backed Japan	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18d6…c67ebacked Japan	62c	23.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Japan	63c	22.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	277	67.9%188 W · 89 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	67cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a88…4e57backed Japan	51c	20.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Japan	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	467	43.3%202 W · 265 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a18…7df1backed Japan	58c	17.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Japan (-1.5)this page
Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5Over won
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5Under won
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Under won
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5Under won
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Japan (-2.5)Iceland won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Japan (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event