Fifa International · resolved market
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3189618f55bce71f123cc6d8666e6717a9d7ce0234ddaf03796fe7dac513b200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 27c | 1,800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 44c | 1,652$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 56c | 1,392$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.29 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 66cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 57c | 1,200$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.4 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…e2cebacked Over | 42c | 1,149$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.71 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 22c | 946.41$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.82 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 891.55$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.55 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 811.38$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.63 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4587…7bc9backed Under | 60c | 807.57$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.03 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 801.87$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.49 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 74c | 706.96$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Over | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 43c | 523$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 28c | 435.71$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 146 | 39.7%58 W · 88 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Under | 56c | 265.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.86 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 43c | 265$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 258.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 78c | 256.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 40c | 225.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 133 | 45.1%60 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 76c | 206.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…5765backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Under | 57c | 199.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 154 | 48.7%75 W · 79 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 246 | 49.2%121 W · 125 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 66c | 151.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Under | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Under | 58c | 110.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 162 | 40.1%65 W · 97 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Over | 47c | 106.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -8.8wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 53c | 93.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 53c | 90.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 55c | 84.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 58c | 81.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 384 | 39.8%153 W · 231 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 53c | 75.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 21c | 73.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2897…0004backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 510 | 45.3%231 W · 279 L | +21.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 59.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 32c | 51.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5b82backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…daf7backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 21.8%41 W · 147 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…369bbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5this page
- Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Iceland won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Iceland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.