Fifa International · resolved market
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd96350dafff4ec6070158356972dffa8f3cef71c2e6799f05a64e3248efc22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 2,340$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.12 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 723.05$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.74 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Under | 15c | 680.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.31 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 540.38$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.56 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 14c | 367.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.99 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 362.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 354.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…b380backed Over | 32c | 260$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 15c | 240$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…e474backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 14c | 147.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 145$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…0c86backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…37dbbacked Under | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 49c | 102.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…24f3backed Over | 54c | 94.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked Under | 68c | 88.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…6516backed Over | 66c | 84.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 80.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…1ff8backed Over | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 67.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Over | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Over | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 19c | 59.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 77c | 57.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…a387backed Under | 39c | 51.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 59c | 49.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Under | 26c | 44.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 329 | 59.6%196 W · 133 L | +21.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5b82backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 42c | 32.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5this page
- Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Iceland won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Iceland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.