Fifa International · resolved market
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ee6dd8c16ba1bc07fac498e37334c5f6d1729302ad9150b5c36b2a5176d219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 2,576$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.77 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 2,391$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.42 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Under | 36c | 2,269$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.64 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 35c | 1,429$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.68 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 35c | 1,330$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.28 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…442bbacked Over | 46c | 761.52$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 16c | 758.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa4…8968backed Over | 66c | 750$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 26c | 699.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 50c | 675.04$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.77 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 60c | 649.6$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.6 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…b697backed Under | 70c | 451.96$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Under | 57c | 408$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 226 | 39.4%89 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 64c | 387.05$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 48c | 347.92$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 65c | 346$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.9 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 329.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under | 62c | 291.84$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 161 | 65.8%106 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 235$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 66c | 190$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.39 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Over | 30c | 180.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 55c | 179.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…a978backed Over | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 45.1%60 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 31c | 145.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 140.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 38c | 128.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 479 | 35.1%168 W · 311 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e7…d4ccbacked Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 101.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Over | 47c | 96.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 34c | 90.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 55c | 89.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 69c | 71.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 65c | 70.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 31c | 68.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 27c | 67.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 66c | 47.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 65c | 47.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked Over | 56c | 45.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 65c | 23.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 65c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 65c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 355 | 49.9%177 W · 178 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 65c | 17.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…36dfbacked Under | 71c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5this page
- Japan vs. Iceland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Japan (-1.5)Iceland won
- Spread: Japan (-2.5)Iceland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.