Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3b556af23322e9f858bd6884d761e4381a632fde4ee21a4a0b2e7207a32983
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, St. John's Red Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe216…7448backed Duke Blue Devils | 57c | 1,307$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.63 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed St. John's Red Storm | 27c | 998.15$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.53 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked St. John's Red Storm | 43c | 827.43$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.79 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Duke Blue Devils | 52c | 643.96$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.49 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. John's Red Storm | 46c | 640.33$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.81 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Duke Blue Devils | 72c | 517.05$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Duke Blue Devils | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed St. John's Red Storm | 50c | 498.81$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.39 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Duke Blue Devils | 44c | 117.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Duke Blue Devils | 26c | 61.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. John's Red Storm | 71c | 54.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Duke Blue Devils | 36c | 49.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed St. John's Red Storm | 62c | 46.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed St. John's Red Storm | 44c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed St. John's Red Storm | 45c | 31.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Duke Blue Devils | 48c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 83 | 72.3%60 W · 23 L | +14.6wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-2.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-4.5)Duke Blue Devils won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)St. John's Red Storm won
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)St. John's Red Storm won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue DevilsDuke Blue Devils won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 140.5Over won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5Over won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 142.5Over won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 148.5Over won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 153.5Over won
- St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 157.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.