Europa Conference League · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d53629dce4f7e2a6649226d7ca8b3cd46ecb444d5e7af1c59233cdfc82edc49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 67c | 1,048$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.06 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 551.57$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.81 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 452.91$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…d24dbacked Over | 47c | 343$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 242.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…4f85backed Under | 45c | 214.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…4789backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 203.36$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…e2dcbacked Under | 42c | 199.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 58c | 188.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 75c | 157.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 124.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 12c | 118.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 56c | 117.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 47c | 113.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Under | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…e5f2backed Under | 44c | 86.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 54c | 84.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 83.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 54c | 80.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 64c | 80.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 59c | 71.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 29c | 64.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 46c | 52.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 32c | 45.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 47c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 28c | 39.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 33c | 34.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…9b6ebacked Over | 62c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 75c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)SC Braga won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.