South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db76e1788cc0cb071a71a82b04cc961f2654f123c718f69fc9e9351c96f762f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 45c | 15,246$6,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,866.02 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 55c | 8,394$4,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,746.88 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 7,782$5,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,420.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 35c | 5,300$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.51 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 60c | 2,482$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.15 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 59c | 2,479$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.39 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 55c | 2,351$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.79 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 61c | 2,053$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.28 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Yes | 16c | 1,877$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 57c | 1,870$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.96 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 55c | 1,642$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.72 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.73 | 273 | 49.5%135 W · 138 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 39c | 799.98$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.99 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 45c | 611.62$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 57c | 586.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked No | 55c | 573.24$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…4ef0backed Yes | 17c | 539.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…61e9backed Yes | 40c | 538.34$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 63c | 467$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.56 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 57c | 461$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 57c | 409.88$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.72 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 407.52$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 53c | 331.76$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 299.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 58c | 289.67$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 36c | 277.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 46c | 230.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 8c | 218.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed No | 55c | 211.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 170.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 57c | 151.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 57c | 148.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 61c | 143.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 23c | 131.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 15c | 125.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 61c | 125.27$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 122.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 45c | 114.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 58c | 94.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Yes | 42c | 90.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 55c | 79.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 22c | 64.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…ed8bbacked No | 56c | 62.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 59.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 54c | 50.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked No | 57c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 73c | 35.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…7b27backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 59c | 33.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 59c | 32.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed No | 61c | 28.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed No | 59c | 27.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked No | 61c | 25.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada6…9447backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113e…ca7cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked No | 59c | 24.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed No | 59c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-10?this page
- Will CF Pachuca vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
- Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.