Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e0f070f066471b9bbe1eb87eb8b32a0eed3c37a2b8dc23f27303d07560a3ce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 63c | 923.7$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 44c | 596.7$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.91 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 14c | 552.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 315.32$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 246$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 235.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 48c | 220$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 36c | 206$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 181.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 176$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 164$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 52c | 150.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 61c | 142.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 28c | 138.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 130.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 130.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 111.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 109.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 84.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 84.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 57c | 73.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 63.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 53c | 60.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 34c | 60.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 40.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 40.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 57c | 35.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…7561backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 56c | 26.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 56c | 22.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 75c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff15…40e6backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 31?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.