Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e1765f386c04e0f58f4c6cca8260ba1d03bf0024b7edb7efec260e6fa5583a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 723.61$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 523.68$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.66 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 47c | 442.23$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.23 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 296.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 294.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 216.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 203.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 57c | 174.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 41c | 135.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 115.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 100.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 51c | 80.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 75.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 74.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 37c | 74.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 39c | 73.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 65.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 57.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 59c | 54.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 43c | 53.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 52.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 75c | 45.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 59c | 40.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 45c | 38.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 38.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 60c | 35.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 34.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 38c | 30.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 58c | 28.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 42c | 28.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 26.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 51c | 25.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 59c | 25.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 57c | 23.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 79c | 22.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 59c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 73c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.