Tennis · resolved market
US Open, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Storm Hunter
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4144bf878220a073cc80cde938a1526d98a4629f2539281a037c78c6f1ec5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Storm Hunterof Darja Semenistaja, Storm Hunter
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Darja Semenistaja | 31c | 18,855$5,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,811.6 | 9,267 | 36.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L | -199.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Storm Hunter | 77c | 13,650$10,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.28 | 4,305 | 45%1,939 W · 2,366 L | +20.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Darja Semenistaja | 1c | 12,542$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 1,606 | 24.4%392 W · 1,214 L | -41.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Darja Semenistaja | 38c | 4,385$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.75 | 1,447 | 42.8%620 W · 827 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Storm Hunter | 60c | 4,052$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.96 | 3,776 | 42.6%1,608 W · 2,168 L | -44.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Darja Semenistaja | 39c | 1,050$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.07 | 1,163 | 37.6%437 W · 726 L | -28.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Storm Hunter | 61c | 1,045$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.6 | 2,545 | 51.2%1,303 W · 1,242 L | +14.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Storm Hunter | 62c | 806$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.28 | 1,709 | 50.6%864 W · 845 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Storm Hunter | 49c | 713.46$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.35 | 264 | 40.2%106 W · 158 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Storm Hunter | 68c | 639.98$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.34 | 2,882 | 47.2%1,360 W · 1,522 L | +39.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Darja Semenistaja | 13c | 505.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 1,123 | 37.2%418 W · 705 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…865bbacked Darja Semenistaja | 29c | 494.98$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…96b5backed Darja Semenistaja | 27c | 407.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Darja Semenistaja | 20c | 380.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 2,088 | 46.7%975 W · 1,113 L | +19.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…d29fbacked Darja Semenistaja | 38c | 357.89$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 329 | 43.8%144 W · 185 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Darja Semenistaja | 35c | 329.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 2,581 | 38.7%999 W · 1,582 L | +100.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Storm Hunter | 77c | 269.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 995 | 51.6%513 W · 482 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Darja Semenistaja | 7c | 260.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 387 | 31.3%121 W · 266 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Storm Hunter | 76c | 259$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 9,444 | 44.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L | -249.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Darja Semenistaja | 23c | 256.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Darja Semenistaja | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 43.8%168 W · 216 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…8beabacked Storm Hunter | 60c | 245$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Storm Hunter | 46c | 236.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 3,752 | 45.3%1,700 W · 2,052 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Darja Semenistaja | 21c | 215.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 3,303 | 40.2%1,329 W · 1,974 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…8869backed Darja Semenistaja | 33c | 212.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 154 | 39%60 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Storm Hunter | 66c | 210.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 3,238 | 57.3%1,854 W · 1,384 L | +179.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Darja Semenistaja | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 519 | 41%213 W · 306 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Darja Semenistaja | 32c | 170.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 377 | 63.9%241 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Storm Hunter | 63c | 162$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 648 | 51.9%336 W · 312 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 39c | 136.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 248 | 30.2%75 W · 173 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Darja Semenistaja | 37c | 129$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 1,066 | 50.1%534 W · 532 L | +38.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Storm Hunter | 57c | 127$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 1,112 | 57.9%644 W · 468 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Storm Hunter | 62c | 125.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 1,004 | 49.5%497 W · 507 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Darja Semenistaja | 21c | 114.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,360 | 38.3%521 W · 839 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Storm Hunter | 72c | 109.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 780 | 55.4%432 W · 348 L | +52.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Storm Hunter | 69c | 99.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 4,647 | 67.7%3,147 W · 1,500 L | +308.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Darja Semenistaja | 28c | 81.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,522 | 43.9%668 W · 854 L | -26.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Storm Hunter | 50c | 77.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 6,700 | 50.8%3,401 W · 3,299 L | +267.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…c53bbacked Darja Semenistaja | 50c | 77.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Storm Hunter | 62c | 69.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Storm Hunter | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 557 | 58.9%328 W · 229 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Storm Hunter | 77c | 60.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 4,407 | 52.3%2,304 W · 2,103 L | +66.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e5…7949backed Darja Semenistaja | 28c | 55.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Darja Semenistaja | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,377 | 28.9%1,553 W · 3,824 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Storm Hunter | 63c | 52.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Storm Hunter | 63c | 50.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 32c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 559 | 46.3%259 W · 300 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Darja Semenistaja | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.3wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…83c2backed Darja Semenistaja | 28c | 38.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 209 | 27.3%57 W · 152 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…9aeebacked Darja Semenistaja | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Storm Hunter | 73c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Storm Hunter | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 553 | 51.9%287 W · 266 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Storm Hunter | 61c | 22.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Storm Hunter | 64c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,076 | 52.9%1,099 W · 977 L | +33.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Storm Hunter | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Storm Hunter | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,081 | 45.7%1,867 W · 2,214 L | -30.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed Storm Hunter | 75c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 169 | 97%164 W · 5 L | +43.7wins | +0.26per pick | 71cpaid | +35%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7422…8a59backed Storm Hunter | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Storm Hunter | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 194 | 87.6%170 W · 24 L | +41.8wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.