Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4f74e1d03bee5bf82354506efd8d9e9c25290bf767237403049be84f95d68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 12c | 709.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 27c | 499.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.63 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 78c | 414.02$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 38c | 339.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.38 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 76c | 337.62$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 336.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 307.73$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 299.1$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 240.27$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 11c | 216.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 186.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 185.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 183.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 182.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 173.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 173.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 166$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 30c | 164.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 160$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 27c | 155.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.74 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 145.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 143$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 141.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 75c | 125.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 22c | 105.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 98.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 79.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 13c | 78.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 77.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 16c | 77.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 59.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 29c | 57.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 52.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 45.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 45.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 45.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 43.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 43.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 42.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 55c | 41.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 41.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 34c | 40.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 39.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 29c | 36.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 36.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 66c | 34.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 33.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 29.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 64c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 24.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 23.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 77c | 14.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.