Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd927751b16de0ab097573912bdc2f0d44bb653ee53a14f7692d6474e12241d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 2c | 7,063$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 1c | 1,530$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 6c | 822.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 9c | 444.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 435.82$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 38c | 360.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 299.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 267.04$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 53c | 211.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 196.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 195.04$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 61c | 182.33$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 166$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 164$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 158.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 155.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 43c | 155.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 128.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 10c | 116.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 114.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 110.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 73c | 108.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 14c | 102.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 42c | 82.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 60c | 81.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 77.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 72.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 75c | 69.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 58c | 63.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 18c | 62.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 78c | 59.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 56c | 48.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 35c | 47.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 45.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 45.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 54c | 44.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 44.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 40.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 39.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 38.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed No | 57c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 62c | 33.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 59c | 33.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 43c | 31.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 29.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…0f48backed Yes | 41c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…b206backed No | 65c | 26.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 64c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 67c | 23.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 23.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 68c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.