NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e683e5353816b4b43f6b46e31e562f415f755725be6b007b72bfe1022cf260d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 2,961$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 51c | 2,411$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.4 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 56c | 1,794$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Under | 46c | 904$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.16 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 521.8$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 467.38$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.32 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 454.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 8c | 394.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 55c | 289.84$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 55c | 280$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Over | 40c | 195.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 187 | 43.3%81 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 60c | 190.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 143.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Under | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 340 | 50.3%171 W · 169 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 110.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…d2adbacked Under | 44c | 106$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 95.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Over | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Over | 56c | 66.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Over | 56c | 52.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 52.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 57c | 39.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b783backed Over | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 44c | 32.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 49c | 31.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Over | 56c | 26.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. WizardsWizards won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.