NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbf0c9478c3320ca2132bcb659bac3fb439d65d97fed2b0dd7c5142f634b0a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 55c | 3,813$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.23 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 60c | 1,472$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 37c | 1,249$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.07 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 53c | 1,205$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.86 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 40c | 882.2$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.32 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 53c | 775$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.75 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 476.87$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 411$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 51c | 227.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 59c | 201.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 48c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 126.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 54c | 116.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 42c | 116.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 41c | 113.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 41c | 98.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…f03cbacked Under | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 42c | 69.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2f95backed Over | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 51.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 46.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…f3a9backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Over | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 40c | 29.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a2…aed0backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…3d04backed Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. WizardsWizards won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.