NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb91f968d783f814516bbf08fc6d55fa9f44e4b39ae26effe5cb2f53b546bcdac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 49c | 2,551$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.99 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,369$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 50c | 690.57$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.29 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 49c | 543$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.93 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Under | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 49c | 99.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…6e4abacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…4bf7backed Under | 50c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…e59ebacked Over | 51c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. WizardsWizards won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.