NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19d34296bc1f335d914432c095187fb2843f69783d326eb347ebce49e38344bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Over | 51c | 60,096$30,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,639.65 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 48c | 16,635$7,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,650.03 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 50c | 14,000$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 13,000$6,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,590 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 6,013$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 2,345$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.5 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 2,195$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.17 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 1,495$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 65c | 1,280$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 52c | 1,209$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.32 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 927$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 54c | 822.61$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 820.58$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.49 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 819$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 627$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.96 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 35c | 603.43$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.23 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 9c | 428.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 399$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 35c | 360.85$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.55 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 52c | 325$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 35c | 205.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…5aa1backed Under | 54c | 194.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 134.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 124$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…5d26backed Over | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…53a1backed Over | 52c | 91.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Under | 48c | 41.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 47c | 33.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…a398backed Under | 79c | 31.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Over | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 49c | 28.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…0803backed Under | 48c | 21.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 49c | 21.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. WizardsWizards won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.