Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6c1a6d82a34a8956f78dce3291466363081ce8853df06407046fc9f673b7a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,755$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.62 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,468$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.15 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,303$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 1,235$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 728.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 661.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 520$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 444.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 418$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 410.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 19c | 384.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 336.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 298.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 294.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed No | 76c | 290.19$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 12c | 289.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 76c | 262.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 223.59$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 22c | 216.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 13c | 209.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 176.55$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 173.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 162$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 157.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 137.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 14c | 132.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 15c | 127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 122.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 121.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 12c | 121.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 24c | 101.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…4ef4backed No | 79c | 85.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 20c | 84.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 20c | 82.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 24c | 81.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 21c | 77.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 73.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…7884backed No | 79c | 72.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 76c | 60.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed No | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 74c | 26.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 75c | 24.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…9291backed No | 79c | 24.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.