Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be5bdd70cb3abe4f1d424936b13e5c184872ac6043dfc1067d84a282268fc69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 0c | 14,401$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 4,418$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 4,233$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 59c | 3,127$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.98 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 47c | 1,079$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.93 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 47c | 778$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.86 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 58c | 704.52$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.52 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 642.61$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.72 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 66c | 561.41$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.42 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 37c | 559.56$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 34c | 532.55$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 481.3$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 470$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 75c | 422.98$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 60c | 384.84$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 70c | 313.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 310.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 66c | 302.27$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 41c | 299.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 40c | 286.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 274.45$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 266.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 47c | 263.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 44c | 224.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 52c | 223.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 46c | 216.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 213.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 48c | 207.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 56c | 199.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 182.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 35c | 162.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 157.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 42c | 157.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 52c | 154.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 55c | 142.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 41c | 105.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 70c | 105.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 44c | 101.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 62c | 96.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 92.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 58c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 83.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 83.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 68.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 49c | 67.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 66.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 64.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 76c | 63.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 62.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 59.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 50c | 55.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 68c | 54.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 40c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 53c | 51.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 42c | 47.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 48c | 47.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 44.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 75c | 38.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 34.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 55c | 30.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 29.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 60c | 25.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…799abacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 63c | 18.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…fda0backed Yes | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 76c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.