Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e60838b11e860dcae9cbba17f7c5e9d2bc99187416fd8613ec8baeb6ef23146
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,492$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.92 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 11c | 2,959$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.29 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,077$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.48 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 810.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 778.98$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.92 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 34c | 634.18$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.72 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 24c | 594.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 581.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 559.56$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.83 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 536.69$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 522.56$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 502.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 500.63$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 493.79$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 482.43$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 34c | 452.87$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 416.64$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 309.26$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed No | 66c | 301.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 33c | 280.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed No | 80c | 250.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 40c | 244.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 231.83$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 38c | 220.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 32c | 206$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 35c | 205.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 36c | 200.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 199.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 194$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 35c | 193.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 179.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…d33cbacked Yes | 36c | 175.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 173.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…91b8backed Yes | 13c | 166.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 165.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 10c | 161.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 160.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 65c | 153.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…89cebacked Yes | 38c | 137.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 37c | 133.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 131.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed No | 62c | 120.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 119.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 34c | 104.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 101.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…bc10backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 39c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 39c | 88.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 86.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 82.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 78.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 70c | 76.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed No | 60c | 73.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 67.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 67c | 64.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 69c | 62.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…bd31backed Yes | 27c | 62.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 62c | 60.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 32c | 59.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 59.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 55.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 38c | 52.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…1891backed Yes | 37c | 51.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…952cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 43.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 26c | 42.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 42c | 42.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 40c | 42.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 37c | 40.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 33c | 40.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 31c | 34.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 38c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.