Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e83ead0b350e146f3eea892030c236f33c6d7d737773551bf6db442a45540e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 873.51$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 833.14$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 486.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 72c | 428.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 25c | 416.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 386.79$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 278.73$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 263.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 231.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 215.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 210.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 185.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 39c | 165.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 164.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 159$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 143$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 126.42$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 34c | 108.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 60c | 108.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 64c | 105.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 28c | 103.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 103.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 101.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 99.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 29c | 97.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 93.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 82.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 80.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 30c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 70c | 74.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 70.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 31c | 67.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 46c | 67.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…4b7fbacked Yes | 19c | 62.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 59.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 69c | 57.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 27c | 56.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 36c | 55.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…1fd0backed Yes | 27c | 55.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…f085backed Yes | 25c | 53.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 52.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 50.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 50.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked No | 66c | 49.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 49.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 33c | 43.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 33c | 40.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 40.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 35.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 41c | 30.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 30.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 25.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 68c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 23.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 59c | 22.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…bc63backed No | 73c | 22.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 64c | 21.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 57c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked No | 61c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 64c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 15.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 79c | 14.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.