Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ad4c45278ed5e9507879ded8ca466277fb88994d6b87686f36322069e2b889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 3,328$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.18 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 1,207$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 655.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 628.86$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 626.67$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 615$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 563.31$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 480.26$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 353.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 348.38$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 341.35$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 59c | 318.1$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 68c | 315.7$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 29c | 259.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 240.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 72c | 229.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 222.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 201.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 25c | 192.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 189.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 181.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 180$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 170$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 164.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 37c | 154.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 60c | 148.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 52c | 119.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 119.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 106.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 96.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 87.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 15c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 40c | 85.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 50c | 84.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 77.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 40c | 74.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 36c | 74.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 43c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 26c | 71.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 64c | 71.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 67.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 59.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…269cbacked Yes | 43c | 58.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 80c | 58.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 57.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 57.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 60c | 56.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 53.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 51.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 50.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…f085backed Yes | 70c | 46.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 43.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…25edbacked Yes | 46c | 40.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 61c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 54c | 39.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 39.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 38.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 38.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 72c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 41c | 37.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 35c | 36.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 59c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 64c | 33.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 41c | 31.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 30.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 52c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…41c6backed Yes | 58c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 63c | 24.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 21.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…64c4backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 61c | 19.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.