Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Djokovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb77bc4e6395d4fda4f71e0094a000a94241f774de44edd43a24d80697f2c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Djokovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Djokovic | 41c | 5,725$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.63 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Musetti | 43c | 3,374$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Musetti | 40c | 2,327$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.91 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed Djokovic | 65c | 978.55$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Musetti | 32c | 880.43$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.51 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Djokovic | 79c | 719$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.61 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Djokovic | 2c | 591.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…7c0ebacked Djokovic | 65c | 515.57$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Musetti | 35c | 470.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.04 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Djokovic | 24c | 408.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 52.1%342 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Djokovic | 30c | 378.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…6bf7backed Djokovic | 65c | 337.6$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed Djokovic | 66c | 331.83$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e0…1fd1backed Musetti | 36c | 276.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Musetti | 33c | 271.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Djokovic | 19c | 210.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Djokovic | 68c | 204.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 259 | 57.5%149 W · 110 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Musetti | 33c | 202.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.61 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Djokovic | 42c | 200.33$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…6cc8backed Musetti | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…3730backed Musetti | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35dc…0083backed Djokovic | 61c | 197.41$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Djokovic | 62c | 177.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Musetti | 61c | 167.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Djokovic | 64c | 138.53$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Djokovic | 14c | 129.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Djokovic | 18c | 122.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…4ddebacked Musetti | 37c | 116.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Musetti | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Djokovic | 63c | 101.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Djokovic | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Musetti | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…8405backed Musetti | 23c | 66.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +335.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Djokovic | 66c | 61.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Musetti | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Musetti | 40c | 53.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Musetti | 42c | 52.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…f87ebacked Djokovic | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Djokovic | 69c | 39.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…7670backed Musetti | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Musetti | 30c | 37.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…4266backed Djokovic | 79c | 36.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…0546backed Musetti | 46c | 35.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +52%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Djokovic | 40c | 30.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Musetti | 78c | 30.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…759ebacked Djokovic | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…4bbebacked Djokovic | 78c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Djokovicthis page
- Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak DjokovicDjokovic won
- Musetti vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Musetti vs. Djokovic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.