NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff980c2ecccee7846dd26c83e49e92d9ce36ea41fba48aba98a0f7eb61729d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,313$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.7 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 45c | 2,086$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.36 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 1,806$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.61 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 44c | 1,628$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.18 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 1,161$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.61 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Under | 55c | 1,124$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.85 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 55c | 962.47$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 55c | 535$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.75 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 44c | 517.86$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…784fbacked Under | 56c | 445.06$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda55…ae5ebacked Over | 46c | 426.52$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed Under | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Under | 56c | 311.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 21c | 299.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 46c | 279.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 15c | 225.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Over | 43c | 173.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…4ee5backed Under | 56c | 173.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcab…3fd9backed Over | 45c | 171.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 162.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 45c | 159.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 155.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Under | 56c | 146.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 65c | 144.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 144.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a54bbacked Under | 56c | 93.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 26c | 83.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Under | 54c | 79.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Under | 57c | 68.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed Under | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Under | 56c | 52.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…500fbacked Under | 55c | 49.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 56c | 43.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 42c | 38.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…282dbacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…d945backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 46c | 34.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…c85abacked Under | 56c | 30.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…e51fbacked Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Under | 56c | 27.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…6bf5backed Under | 55c | 25.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909e…1451backed Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…8a9ebacked Under | 55c | 23.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…edbdbacked Under | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…d5d2backed Under | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3a3abacked Under | 55c | 20.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…4374backed Under | 55c | 18.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.